248cc永利集团学术讲座，理悦CEMA•知与行系列研讨会将于11月21日（周五）16：30-18：00在学术会堂712会议室举行，由清华大学经济与管理学院经济学博士候选人王艺臻报告她和清华经管长聘副教授董丰、诺奖萨金特、北大汇丰商学院院长王鹏飞合作的最前沿的政府债务和多重均衡的论文：“When Deficit Traps Growth: Multiplicity and Cycles with Heterogeneous Firms”（政府赤字阻碍增长：异质性企业下的多重均衡和周期）。欢迎广大师生（尤其是对科研有兴趣和追求的本科生、硕士生和博士生）参加。

01题目

When Deficit Traps Growth: Multiplicity and Cycles with Heterogeneous Firms

02摘要

This paper investigates the effects of government deficits and public debt on macroeconomic performance, with a particular focus on capital accumulation and productivity. Departing from the conventional “crowding-out” hypothesis, the study proposes that fiscal deficits affect aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) by inducing capital misallocation across heterogeneous agents. Through a heterogeneous agent model, the analysis demonstrates that persistent deficits can give rise to multiple equilibria: a “Good” Equilibrium characterized by high interest rates, efficient capital allocation, and high TFP; and a “Bad” Equilibrium—termed a “Misallocation Trap”—featuring low interest rates, severe capital misallocation, and diminished TFP. A shift to fiscal surplus is shown to eliminate this multiplicity, ensuring a unique and efficient equilibrium. The study underscores a self-reinforcing cycle between fiscal policy, capital allocation, and economic outcomes, suggesting that sustained deficits may precipitate a “coordination failure” that traps the economy in a state of low productivity.

03报告人简介

王艺臻，清华大学经济管理学院2021级应用经济学博士研究生，指导老师为董丰副教授。本科毕业于中国人民大学经济学-数学双学位实验班。研究领域包括宏观金融、政府债务、开放经济、财政货币政策等。学术成果于《金融学季刊》和宏观国际顶刊AEJ: Macro返修中，另有多篇中英文工作论文在投。曾获清华大学综合一等奖学金、清华经管经济系优秀博士论文等荣誉。

04时间

2025年11月21日（周五）16：30-18：00

05地点

永利集团官网学院南路校区学术会堂712会议室

撰稿：王艺臻

审稿：何其春

编辑：沈嘉怡

审核：王颖