研讨论文

Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment (Wang and Wong, 2025)

主讲人

卢福豪（北京大学光华管理学院2025级博士生）

论文简介

How large is the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment? This paper introduces a labor-search model of technological unemployment, conceptualizing the generative aspect of AI as a learning-by-using technology. AI capability improves through machine learning from workers and in turn enhances their labor productivity, but eventually displaces workers if wage renegotiation fails. Three distinct equilibria emerge: no AI, some AI with higher unemployment, or unbounded AI with sustained endogenous growth and little impact on employment. By calibrating to the U.S. data, our model predicts more than threefold improvements in productivity in some-AI steady state, alongside a long-run employment loss of 23%, with half this loss occurring over the initial five-year transition. Plausible change in parameter values could lead to global and local indeterminacy. The mechanism highlights the considerable uncertainty of AI’s impacts in the presence of labor-market frictions. In the unbounded-AI equilibrium, technological unemployment would not occur. We further show that equilibria are inefficient despite adherence to the Hosios condition. By improving job-finding rate and labor productivity, the optimal subsidy to jobs facing the replacement risk of AI can generate a welfare gain from 26.6% in the short run to over 50% in the long run.

点评老师

王忏 明洋

时间

11月23日（周日）19:00-21:00

地点

学术会堂712

活动对象

248cc永利集团、金融学院学生

人数规模

30人

主办单位

248cc永利集团中国经济与管理研究院、金融学院联合主办

撰稿：卢福豪

审稿：明洋

编辑：沈嘉怡

审核：王颖